EUR/USD rises as further signs of cooling labor market weigh on US Dollar
- EUR/USD holds gains near 1.0780 as Fed rate-cut speculation keeps the US Dollar on edge.
- Easing US labor market conditions strengthens Fed rate-cut prospects.
- The ECB is projected to deliver three rate cuts this year due to easing Eurozone inflation.
EUR/USD is struck in a tight range slightly below the crucial resistance of 1.0800 in Friday’s European session after a sharp recovery from 1.0725. The major currency pair holds strength as investors have already discounted the fact that the European Central Bank (ECB) will start lowering its borrowing rates in June.
However, ECB policymakers are divided over extending the rate-cut cycle after the June meeting. A few policymakers believe that additional interest rate cuts from the July meeting could revamp price pressures.
ECB policymaker and Bank of Greece Governor Yannis Stournaras said in an interview with a Greek media outlet last week that he sees three rate cuts this year. He sees a rate cut in July as possible and added that an economic rebound in the first quarter made a three-cuts scenario more likely than four. The Eurozone economy expanded by 0.3% in the January-March period, beating expectations of a 0.1% growth.
On the contrary, ECB Governing Council member and Governor of Austria's central bank, Robert Holzmann, said on Wednesday that he doesn't see a reason to cut key interest rates "too quickly or too strongly," Reuters reported.
This week, EUR/USD has been driven by market sentiment due to the absence of tier-1 Eurozone and United States economic data. However, next week, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, which will be published on Wednesday.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD holds strength amid improved market sentiment
- EUR/USD shows strength slightly below the round-level resistance of 1.0800 at 1.0780 due to improved market sentiment. The appeal for risk-perceived assets is strong amid firm speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start reducing interest rates in September. S&P 500 futures have posted significant gains in the European session, signalling investors’ higher risk appetite.
- Expectations for the Fed to begin lowering interest rates in September have strengthened as the US labor market showed further signs of cooling. On Thursday, the US Department of Labor reported that Initial Jobless Claims rose significantly to 231K (the highest level since November 10 week), exceeding the consensus of 210K and the prior reading of 209K.
- Apart from the higher-than-expected jobless claims, weak Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for April and slower job openings in March have dented investors’ confidence in the strength of the US labor market. Job growth was the lowest in six months and job postings were the lowest in three years.
- Cooling US labor market conditions indicate that the job market is struggling to bear the burden of the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy framework. The context has boosted Fed interest rate-cut prospects for September. The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders see a 71% chance that interest rates will decline from their current levels in September, which is higher than the odds of 66% recorded a month ago.
- This week, Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari said that weakness in the job market could justify a rate cut. However, he remained lean towards maintaining the current interest rate framework for the entire year. Kashkari signalled concerns over stalling progress in inflation declining to 2% amid a strong housing market.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD is slightly below 1.0800
EUR/USD is steadily approaching the downward-sloping border of a Symmetrical Triangle pattern formed on a daily time frame, which is plotted from December 28 high around 1.1140. The upward-sloping border of the triangle pattern is marked from the October 3 low at 1.0448. The Symmetrical Triangle formation exhibits a sharp volatility contraction.
The major currency pair has come closer to the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0780.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among market participants.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.